Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.018903 0.021433 0.024181 0.027388 0.031031 0.035042 0.039796
2025-06-01 0.014985 0.018474 0.022595 0.027829 0.034305 0.042069 0.052102
2025-06-08 0.012570 0.016400 0.021188 0.027626 0.036072 0.046804 0.061517
2025-06-15 0.011256 0.015384 0.020792 0.028413 0.038905 0.052892 0.073034
2025-06-22 0.009661 0.013740 0.019302 0.027462 0.039173 0.055444 0.079890
2025-06-29 0.008572 0.012633 0.018370 0.027099 0.040101 0.058851 0.088119
2025-07-06 0.007518 0.011442 0.017168 0.026170 0.040041 0.060732 0.094174
2025-07-13 0.007112 0.011156 0.017241 0.027108 0.042807 0.066984 0.107371
2025-07-20 0.006694 0.010801 0.017160 0.027773 0.045169 0.072776 0.120341
2025-07-27 0.006366 0.010549 0.017202 0.028614 0.047857 0.079273 0.135016
2025-08-03 0.005868 0.009969 0.016656 0.028425 0.048804 0.082969 0.145283
2025-08-10 0.005458 0.009496 0.016240 0.028402 0.050000 0.087144 0.156705
2025-08-17 0.005004 0.008913 0.015600 0.027958 0.050466 0.090173 0.166526
2025-08-24 0.004733 0.008630 0.015455 0.028375 0.052505 0.096160 0.182336
2025-08-31 0.004395 0.008193 0.014995 0.028170 0.053368 0.100062 0.194569
2025-09-07 0.004233 0.008064 0.015077 0.028972 0.056177 0.107797 0.214881
2025-09-14 0.003849 0.007482 0.014270 0.028002 0.055481 0.108782 0.221921
2025-09-21 0.003578 0.007094 0.013795 0.027632 0.055918 0.111977 0.233686
2025-09-28 0.003264 0.006595 0.013063 0.026685 0.055101 0.112592 0.240127
2025-10-05 0.003190 0.006570 0.013263 0.027642 0.058271 0.121561 0.265100
2025-10-12 0.003090 0.006482 0.013327 0.028320 0.060907 0.129634 0.288884
2025-10-19 0.003013 0.006436 0.013472 0.029178 0.063999 0.138926 0.316242
2025-10-26 0.002841 0.006174 0.013144 0.028986 0.064772 0.143255 0.332739